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Real Estate Forecast for 2018: What to Expect!

Real Estate Forecast for 2018: What to Expect!

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Real Estate Forecast for 2018: What to Expect

As we head into a new year, the most common question we receive is, “What’s the outlook for GTA’s real estate in 2018?”

 

It’s not just potential buyers and sellers who care; current homeowners also want reassurance about the value of their investment. No one knows exactly what 2018 will bring, but we’ve outlined expert predictions on where the market is headed and how government interventions are expected to impact the Canadian housing market in the year ahead.

HOUSING PRICES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN URBAN CENTRES

Although the Toronto real estate market did experience a slowdown in 2017, housing affordability will remain a major issue in both Toronto and Vancouver in 2018. According to the Royal Bank of Canada’s most recent Housing Trends and Affordability Report, as of Q2 2017 it cost more than 75 percent (Toronto) and 80 percent (Vancouver) of median household income to cover the average cost of owning a home.1

In an effort to stabilize prices, both the Ontario and British Columbia governments enacted a 15 percent tax on foreign investments in housing. However, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers report on Emerging Trends in Real Estate: Canada and the United States 2018, “Industry players are skeptical that recent tax moves … to curtail foreign investment will have a long term cooling impact on housing affordability in Toronto and Vancouver.”2

In its Canadian Regional Housing Outlook, TD Economics predicts ”The decline in sales activity in both Vancouver and Toronto has helped to redistribute the balance of power from a pure seller’s market, back towards buyers, as evidenced by the sales-to-listing ratios. But, first-time homebuyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for higher interest rates to trigger a market crash may be holding their breath for a while. Prices are likely to only reset back to levels that existed prior to a year of exorbitant gains.”3

The high cost of living has forced a growing number of millennials to seek alternatives to traditional housing. The 2016 census found 47.4 percent of young adults in Toronto and 38.6 percent in Vancouver live with a parent. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts a rise in multi-generational and multi-family homes, a move towards larger condominiums to suit growing families, and a flight from urban cores as new public transit projects make commuting more feasible.2

What does it mean for you? If you’re a current homeowner, you can expect your investment to hold its value and continue to appreciate over the long term. And if you’re considering selling this year, contact us to request a free Comparative Market Analysis to find out how much you can expect your home to sell for under current market conditions.

If you’re a potential buyer who has been waiting for real estate prices to drop, don’t expect a fallout any time soon. Governmental bodies have taken steps to slow down skyrocketing prices, which has helped to balance the market. Now is a great time to buy. And if traditional housing options don’t fit your budget, we can help you find alternatives to meet your needs.

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE MARKET

Skyrocketing real estate prices have caused Canadians to take on a growing amount of debt. The federal Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) reports that the average household indebtedness is up to 174 percent of disposable income, and they predict it will reach 180 percent by the end of 2018. Coupled with rising interest rates, the share of income that will go towards debt payments is expected to reach historic proportions.4

Regulators at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) have attempted to curb the potential fallout with interventions, the latest of which went into effect on January 1. These new regulations raise the requirements for mortgage borrowers with down payments of 20 percent or more. They are now required to qualify for a mortgage at an interest rate two percentage points higher than their current rate to ensure they can manage payments when interest rates do inevitably rise.

A similar “stress test” was enacted in 2016 for borrowers who put down less than 20 percent, but that regulation impacted a much smaller percentage of buyers.

According to Jeremy Rudin, the head of OSFI, “We clearly see the potential risks caused by high household indebtedness across Canada, and by high real estate prices in some markets. We are not waiting to see those risks crystallize in rising arrears and defaults before we act.”5

All federally regulated financial institutions will be obligated to utilize these requirements for both new mortgages and mortgage renewal applications of borrowers applying to switch lenders. It is not mandatory to apply the test at mortgage renewal for existing borrowers. Since credit unions are regulated provincially, they are not required to follow the new OSFI rules, although some may choose to out of prudency.

What does it mean for you? With new rules in effect, if you’re a buyer, your purchasing power may be impacted. If you’re concerned you may not be able to meet these requirements, securing your mortgage through a credit union may be an option. We are following this issue closely. Give us a call so we can discuss how these new rules will affect your home search.

If you’re considering selling your home this year, these regulations could alter the type of buyer who will be willing and able to purchase your home. We have expertise in this area and know how to market your home to a changing demographic.

5 YEAR MORTGAGES WILL MAKE A COMEBACK

Expect interest rates to rise in 2018. Bank of Canada has indicated that borrowers should expect to see rate increases this year … and notably, nearly half of Canadian mortgage holders are set to renew their mortgages in the next 12 months. Combined with the new, more stringent “stress test” requirements, a greater number of homeowners will be opting for five-year-fixed rate mortgages over the historically popular variable rate mortgages.6

According to LowerRates.ca, “Since January 2014, 56% of Canadian borrowers who applied for a mortgage through LowestRates.ca have gone variable, compared with 43% of those who got a five-year fixed. But this past August, there was a shift, where the five-year-fixed rate mortgage saw a sharp increase in applicants, with 59% of users on the LowestRates.ca site opting for this option versus only 39% opting for the variable mortgage.”7

What does it mean for you? If you’re in the market to buy, act now. Rising interest rates will decrease your purchasing power, so act quickly before interest rates go up. Give us a call today to get your home search started.

And if you’re a current homeowner who is set to renew your mortgage, you may want to consider locking in a five-year-fixed rate. Contact us if you would like assistance navigating your options.

 

 

2018 ACTION PLAN

If you plan to BUY this year:

 

1.    Get pre-approved for a mortgage. If you plan to finance part of your home purchase, getting pre-approved for a mortgage will give you a jump-start on the paperwork and provide an advantage over other buyers in a competitive market. The added bonus: you will find out how much you can afford to borrow and budget accordingly.

2.    Create your wish list. How many bedrooms and bathrooms do you need? How far are you willing to commute to work? What’s most important to you in a home? We can set up a customized search that meets your criteria to help you find the perfect home for you.

3.    Come to our office. The buying process can be tricky. We’d love to guide you through it. We can help you find a home that fits your needs and budget, all at no cost to you. Give us a call to schedule an appointment today!

 

If you plan to SELL this year:

 

1.    Call us for a FREE Comparative Market Analysis. A CMA not only gives you the current market value of your home, it’ll also show how your home compares to others in the area. This will help us determine which repairs and upgrades may be required to get top dollar for your property … and it will help us price your home correctly once you’re ready to list.

2.    Prep your home for the market. Most buyers want a home they can move into right away, without having to make extensive repairs and upgrades. We can help you determine which ones are worth the time and expense to deliver maximum results.

3.    Start decluttering. Help your buyers see themselves in your home by packing up personal items and things you don’t use regularly and storing them in an attic or storage locker. This will make your home appear larger, make it easier to stage … and get you one step closer to moving when the time comes!

 

WE’RE HERE TO HELP

 

While national real estate numbers and predictions can provide a “big-picture” outlook for the year, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market, and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighbourhood. If you have specific questions, or would like more information about where we see real estate headed in our area, please give us a call! We’d love to discuss how issues here at home are likely to impact your desire to buy or a sell a home this year. Please visit our website SnapHomes.ca for latest MLS listing and pre-construction Homes & Condos.

Can’t find what you are looking for? Contact us for Exclusive list of Pre construction Homes and Condos and our pocket listings for Land!
Sources:

1.     Royal Bank of Canada’s Housing Trends and Affordability Report –
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-custom/pdf/20170929-ha.pdf

2.     PricewaterhouseCoopers Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2018  –
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/real-estate/assets/Real_Estate_ETRE_2018_PDF.pdf

3.     TD Economics Canadian Regional Housing Outlook –
https://economics.td.com/canadian-regional-housing-outlook-aug-2017

4.     Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer –
http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/HH_Vulnerability

5.     Financial Post
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/stricter-osfi-rules-on-mortgage-lending-will-do-more-harm-than-good-fraser-institute

6.     Bank of Canada Financial System Review November 2018  –
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/fsr-november2017.pdf

7.     Maclean’s  –
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/canadians-rushing-to-lock-down-five-year-fixed-rate-mortgages/

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Seven costly mistakes of property investment

Would-be buyers are often scared by hellish income property stories. But if you want to stay out of property purgatory, writes investment expert Paul Kondakos, avoid the following 7 Deadly Sins of income investing:

1. Poor Property Selection – This one can weigh on anyone’s soul as purchasing the wrong investment property can have long lasting repercussions that can range from high vacancy rates to exorbitant maintenance/repair costs. You need to ensure that you educate yourself and do your homework before you jump into any investment. Start by learning the criteria that make for a good income property investment.

2. Lazy Expense Tracking – Income property investing is a business, and as such, you need to be doing one of two things. Increasing revenue or decreasing expenses. Failure to track expenses is a costly mistake as patterns may reveal opportunities for cost savings. One such example is utilities which are one of the biggest expenses in operating an investment property. Often times water leaks can go undetected and cost BIG money. Simply tracking your bills will alert you to any activity that is out of the norm and allow you to act immediately.

3. Inadequate Tenant Screening – If you want to truly experience income property Hell don’t do any tenant screening at all. This is the one of the biggest sins you can commit as a property owner as you leave yourself open to unpaid rent, property damage, disruption of other tenants, additional unwelcomed tenants and a whole slew of other bad things which can cost thousands of dollars. To avoid this certain Hell, ensure you (A) Check Credit (B} Check Employment References and Pay Stub (C) Check Previous Landlord References (D) Check Personal References (E) Check Photo ID and (F) Ensure you Get First and Last Month’s Rent Up-Front.

4. Negligent Superintendent Supervision – Failure to supervise can be a costly mistake as the downside can range from missed efficiencies or savings opportunities to outright fraud or theft. No matter how great your superintendent or property manager, you still need to actively manage them as no one has your best interests at heart like you do. To ensure everyone is on the same page have regular meetings with your superintendent or property manager to review repairs, expenses, tenants and protocol.

5. Sloppy Accounting – Not keeping track of your income and expenses will not only put you on a fast track towards major headaches at tax time, it will leave you in the dark about potential inefficiencies and costs savings opportunities. Using an accounting program such as Quick books or a simple Excel spreadsheet will help keep you out of CRA’s Inferno.

6. Deferred Property Maintenance/Repairs – There is a special place reserved in Hell for the Slum lord. This one is a double whammy for those that are eager to experience income property Hell. While no one likes to shell out money for maintenance and repairs, failure to do so will inevitably lead to 2 other certainties (A) good tenants will leave and (B} repair and maintenance expenses will begin to grow exponentially the longer they are ignored. Keep your inner Slum lord at bay by putting aside funds to carry out regular maintenance and repairs.

7. Complacency on Rents – As mentioned in Sin #2 (Lazy Expense Tracking), income property investing is a business. Failure to keep up with going market rents will keep you from achieving maximum potential income (and keep you from maximizing the market value of your income property). Ensure that rent increase notifications are being handed out every anniversary as per the prescribed guidelines and that any newly vacant units are being priced according to going market rents.

Avoid these 7 Deadly Sins of income property investing and you will find that income property investing can be a heavenly experience. Source: Canadian Real Estate Wealth

 

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No sharp dive in housing market says CIBC economist

According to a top CIBC economist, suggesting the anticipated housing decline will not be as sharp or as long as earlier projected because of immigration.

“It turns out fears of a long and sharp downturn in the housing market, are highly exaggerated and very premature,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC. “In fact demographic forces will be supportive to real estate markets in the coming decade.”

Tal predicts immigration, which is responsible for most of the population growth, will be a major force impacting housing demand.

“What’s more, there is significant jump in the home ownership rate among immigrants as they pass the three-year mark,” said Tal. “In fact, after 10 years in Canada, the propensity among immigrants to own a house is higher than among native Canadians.”

While there will be a decline in the number of Canadians under the age of 25 and those between 45 and 54, those age groups account for a relatively small portion of home buyers, Tal writes in his latest Consumer Watch report.

By contrast, the number of Canadians between the ages of 25 and 35 – the age group that makes up the vast majority of first-time home buyers – will continue to rise, the report said.

“From a housing market perspective, what counts is not only the change in population of a given age group, but more importantly, the level of housing market activity among these groups,” said Tal. “In other words, the group that is most likely to buy a house will grow faster in the coming decade.” Source: Brokernews.ca

 
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Condo Prices Grow at Moderate Pace in Q2

Condo Prices Grow at Moderate Pace in Q2

July 18, 2012Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,435 condominium apartment transactions during the second quarter of 2012 – down by 2.6 per cent compared to 6,609 transactions reported in the second quarter of 2011. New listings for condominium apartments were up substantially on a year-over-year basis, climbing by 19 per cent in comparison to 2011.

“The condominium apartment market has been the best-supplied market segment in the GTA this year. Many condominium projects have completed over the past year and this has resulted in a substantial increase in listings and ultimately more choice for buyers,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah. “The greater degree of choice in the condo market translated into a moderate rate of price growth compared to what was experienced in the low-rise market segment.”

The average price for second quarter condominium apartment sales was $342,212, representing a 3.2 per cent increase over the same period in 2011.

“Sellers seemed to be well-aware of condo market conditions in the second quarter. On average, units were priced in line with buyer expectations, with apartments selling for 98 per cent of the asking price in less than a month’s time,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. 6,435 6,609 Second Quarter 2012 Second Quarter 2011

 

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101 Erskine

Tridel now introduces 101 Erskine. This smartly tailored glass condo residence with a contrasting tonal profile is strategically tucked away, mere steps from the energy of midtown Yonge and Eglinton in Toronto. Yet this venerable neighbourhood  Walkscore is also just moments from the subway, prestigious shops and superb dining.

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101 Erskine’s modernist sensibilities are echoed in its clean linear exterior design and refined interiors: charcoal grey, white and clear glass, copper clad front entry, stunning lobby, rooftop terrace with infinity pool and outdoor fireplace lounge, sublime entertainment spaces with private courtyard, alfresco dining lounge, sleek fitness amenities, even a linear park walkway creating a link between Broadway and Erskine.

Elegant Studio, 1 bedroom, 1 bedroom plus den, 2 bedroom and 2 bedroom plus den suites with 9′ ceilings and 10 signature townhomes feature distinctively modern styling and finishes one would naturally expect from this coveted address. 101 Erskine. Anything but ordinary.

101 Erskine will be Rising to 32 storeys high and will accamodate 421 Suites and 10 Townhomes. Estimated completion Summar  2015.

101 Erskine Condos follows the amazing success of The Republic, which launched in 2007. Only four days after phase one of the community was launched, at 25 Broadway Avenue, phase two was launched at 70 Roehampton.

101 Erskine Condominiums is just one block north of Broadway Avenue and the brand-new high school. There will be a park walkway between the two avenues, adding to the community feel of the neighbourhood. 101 Erskine is also a “walker’s paradise” with a Walk Score of 95 out of 100, meaning that almost everything you could need — groceries, restaurants, parks, banking and more — is within walking distance.

Amenities: Fitness centre, party room, billiards lounge, fireplace lounge, concierge, yoga studio, theatre, sauna, infinity pool.

101 Erskine. Celebrating the richness of life.

By indicating your interest in 101 Erskine Condos at this early stage, you’ll be among the first to be invited to view Price List and Floor Plans and take advantage of coming in to our member circle.

 

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HighPark Residences Condos

HighPark Residences Condos – Where Urban Living Meets Mother Nature! Situated across from High Park and steps to Bloor West Village. HighPark Residences will offer Condominium Suites and Urban Townhomes.

Suites start from mid $300,000s.

Daniels Corporation Proposed to build a staggered 14 storey condominium building at 1844 Bloor St W that would have 364 units. The parts of HighPark Residences Condos adjacent to a street would be 6 storeys high with commercial units on the ground floor along Bloor Street. Higher floors would be stepped up along the back and centre of the building to a maximum of 14 storeys.

By indicating your interest in HighPark Residences Condos at this early stage, you’ll be among the first to be invited to view Price List and Floor Plans and take advantage of coming in to our member circle.

 

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East Village Leslieville

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A modern interpretation of conventional towns creates a clean crisp form that speaks to today’s savvy urbanities.

The two building complex will contain 31 residential units with a number of underground parking spaces. Over half the townhome residences at East Village Leslieville have rooftop terraces with skyline views that overlook at green roof. Outdoor terraces facing south overlook lush greenery. An intimate passage way is created between blocks that define East Village Leslieville Towns.

The modern esthetic of East Village Leslieville Townhouses defines the living/dining and kitchen environments.

Townhouse style living from the low $200’s

 

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Important Message: In order for an investor to take the most advantage of Buying Pre-construction Condos is to buy before its open to the public. Prior to opening day of a new condo sales office to the general public, prices may have gone up. This will be an opportunity for you to invest in a unit at the lowest price possible before its open to the public. You can be one of the first purchasers to be invited to Platinum VIP Preview Sales Event long before the presentation centre opens to the public. This gives you an opportunity to have the first access to inventory, best pick at unit levels, floor plans, lowest price not available to the public and the ability to take advantage of Platinum VIP Condo Incentives the builder may offer.  This is a perfect opportunity at the Platinum VIP Price.

 

For more information and to register now for the  VIP Preview Sales Event please fill out the form below, we can only bring limited customers into the Platinum VIP Sales Event, so pre-register now for priority access:

 

 

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