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Real Estate Forecast for 2018: What to Expect!

Real Estate Forecast for 2018: What to Expect!

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Real Estate Forecast for 2018: What to Expect

As we head into a new year, the most common question we receive is, “What’s the outlook for GTA’s real estate in 2018?”

 

It’s not just potential buyers and sellers who care; current homeowners also want reassurance about the value of their investment. No one knows exactly what 2018 will bring, but we’ve outlined expert predictions on where the market is headed and how government interventions are expected to impact the Canadian housing market in the year ahead.

HOUSING PRICES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN URBAN CENTRES

Although the Toronto real estate market did experience a slowdown in 2017, housing affordability will remain a major issue in both Toronto and Vancouver in 2018. According to the Royal Bank of Canada’s most recent Housing Trends and Affordability Report, as of Q2 2017 it cost more than 75 percent (Toronto) and 80 percent (Vancouver) of median household income to cover the average cost of owning a home.1

In an effort to stabilize prices, both the Ontario and British Columbia governments enacted a 15 percent tax on foreign investments in housing. However, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers report on Emerging Trends in Real Estate: Canada and the United States 2018, “Industry players are skeptical that recent tax moves … to curtail foreign investment will have a long term cooling impact on housing affordability in Toronto and Vancouver.”2

In its Canadian Regional Housing Outlook, TD Economics predicts ”The decline in sales activity in both Vancouver and Toronto has helped to redistribute the balance of power from a pure seller’s market, back towards buyers, as evidenced by the sales-to-listing ratios. But, first-time homebuyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for higher interest rates to trigger a market crash may be holding their breath for a while. Prices are likely to only reset back to levels that existed prior to a year of exorbitant gains.”3

The high cost of living has forced a growing number of millennials to seek alternatives to traditional housing. The 2016 census found 47.4 percent of young adults in Toronto and 38.6 percent in Vancouver live with a parent. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts a rise in multi-generational and multi-family homes, a move towards larger condominiums to suit growing families, and a flight from urban cores as new public transit projects make commuting more feasible.2

What does it mean for you? If you’re a current homeowner, you can expect your investment to hold its value and continue to appreciate over the long term. And if you’re considering selling this year, contact us to request a free Comparative Market Analysis to find out how much you can expect your home to sell for under current market conditions.

If you’re a potential buyer who has been waiting for real estate prices to drop, don’t expect a fallout any time soon. Governmental bodies have taken steps to slow down skyrocketing prices, which has helped to balance the market. Now is a great time to buy. And if traditional housing options don’t fit your budget, we can help you find alternatives to meet your needs.

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE MARKET

Skyrocketing real estate prices have caused Canadians to take on a growing amount of debt. The federal Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) reports that the average household indebtedness is up to 174 percent of disposable income, and they predict it will reach 180 percent by the end of 2018. Coupled with rising interest rates, the share of income that will go towards debt payments is expected to reach historic proportions.4

Regulators at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) have attempted to curb the potential fallout with interventions, the latest of which went into effect on January 1. These new regulations raise the requirements for mortgage borrowers with down payments of 20 percent or more. They are now required to qualify for a mortgage at an interest rate two percentage points higher than their current rate to ensure they can manage payments when interest rates do inevitably rise.

A similar “stress test” was enacted in 2016 for borrowers who put down less than 20 percent, but that regulation impacted a much smaller percentage of buyers.

According to Jeremy Rudin, the head of OSFI, “We clearly see the potential risks caused by high household indebtedness across Canada, and by high real estate prices in some markets. We are not waiting to see those risks crystallize in rising arrears and defaults before we act.”5

All federally regulated financial institutions will be obligated to utilize these requirements for both new mortgages and mortgage renewal applications of borrowers applying to switch lenders. It is not mandatory to apply the test at mortgage renewal for existing borrowers. Since credit unions are regulated provincially, they are not required to follow the new OSFI rules, although some may choose to out of prudency.

What does it mean for you? With new rules in effect, if you’re a buyer, your purchasing power may be impacted. If you’re concerned you may not be able to meet these requirements, securing your mortgage through a credit union may be an option. We are following this issue closely. Give us a call so we can discuss how these new rules will affect your home search.

If you’re considering selling your home this year, these regulations could alter the type of buyer who will be willing and able to purchase your home. We have expertise in this area and know how to market your home to a changing demographic.

5 YEAR MORTGAGES WILL MAKE A COMEBACK

Expect interest rates to rise in 2018. Bank of Canada has indicated that borrowers should expect to see rate increases this year … and notably, nearly half of Canadian mortgage holders are set to renew their mortgages in the next 12 months. Combined with the new, more stringent “stress test” requirements, a greater number of homeowners will be opting for five-year-fixed rate mortgages over the historically popular variable rate mortgages.6

According to LowerRates.ca, “Since January 2014, 56% of Canadian borrowers who applied for a mortgage through LowestRates.ca have gone variable, compared with 43% of those who got a five-year fixed. But this past August, there was a shift, where the five-year-fixed rate mortgage saw a sharp increase in applicants, with 59% of users on the LowestRates.ca site opting for this option versus only 39% opting for the variable mortgage.”7

What does it mean for you? If you’re in the market to buy, act now. Rising interest rates will decrease your purchasing power, so act quickly before interest rates go up. Give us a call today to get your home search started.

And if you’re a current homeowner who is set to renew your mortgage, you may want to consider locking in a five-year-fixed rate. Contact us if you would like assistance navigating your options.

 

 

2018 ACTION PLAN

If you plan to BUY this year:

 

1.    Get pre-approved for a mortgage. If you plan to finance part of your home purchase, getting pre-approved for a mortgage will give you a jump-start on the paperwork and provide an advantage over other buyers in a competitive market. The added bonus: you will find out how much you can afford to borrow and budget accordingly.

2.    Create your wish list. How many bedrooms and bathrooms do you need? How far are you willing to commute to work? What’s most important to you in a home? We can set up a customized search that meets your criteria to help you find the perfect home for you.

3.    Come to our office. The buying process can be tricky. We’d love to guide you through it. We can help you find a home that fits your needs and budget, all at no cost to you. Give us a call to schedule an appointment today!

 

If you plan to SELL this year:

 

1.    Call us for a FREE Comparative Market Analysis. A CMA not only gives you the current market value of your home, it’ll also show how your home compares to others in the area. This will help us determine which repairs and upgrades may be required to get top dollar for your property … and it will help us price your home correctly once you’re ready to list.

2.    Prep your home for the market. Most buyers want a home they can move into right away, without having to make extensive repairs and upgrades. We can help you determine which ones are worth the time and expense to deliver maximum results.

3.    Start decluttering. Help your buyers see themselves in your home by packing up personal items and things you don’t use regularly and storing them in an attic or storage locker. This will make your home appear larger, make it easier to stage … and get you one step closer to moving when the time comes!

 

WE’RE HERE TO HELP

 

While national real estate numbers and predictions can provide a “big-picture” outlook for the year, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market, and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighbourhood. If you have specific questions, or would like more information about where we see real estate headed in our area, please give us a call! We’d love to discuss how issues here at home are likely to impact your desire to buy or a sell a home this year. Please visit our website SnapHomes.ca for latest MLS listing and pre-construction Homes & Condos.

Can’t find what you are looking for? Contact us for Exclusive list of Pre construction Homes and Condos and our pocket listings for Land!
Sources:

1.     Royal Bank of Canada’s Housing Trends and Affordability Report –
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-custom/pdf/20170929-ha.pdf

2.     PricewaterhouseCoopers Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2018  –
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/real-estate/assets/Real_Estate_ETRE_2018_PDF.pdf

3.     TD Economics Canadian Regional Housing Outlook –
https://economics.td.com/canadian-regional-housing-outlook-aug-2017

4.     Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer –
http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/HH_Vulnerability

5.     Financial Post
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/stricter-osfi-rules-on-mortgage-lending-will-do-more-harm-than-good-fraser-institute

6.     Bank of Canada Financial System Review November 2018  –
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/fsr-november2017.pdf

7.     Maclean’s  –
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/canadians-rushing-to-lock-down-five-year-fixed-rate-mortgages/

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PAINTBOX Condos

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CLIENT INCENTIVE PROGRAM Platinum Producers One-Day-Only Sales Program

Special One-Day-Only Bonus Incentives*

Purchase a PARKING SPOT for ONLY:

Regular Parking Price                           Special-One-Day ONLY

$26,500 / spot                                            $16,500 / spot

PLUS

Regular Locker Price                            Special-One-Day ONLY

$3,500 / locker                                                         $975

Parking is not available with the purchase of a STUDIO and some ONE BEDROOM Suites**, therefore, clients who purchase a Studio or select One Bedroom suites can take advantage of:

** Parking is available for some One Bedroom suites only. See Sales Representative for full details.
NO SURPRISES – NO HIDDEN COSTS
ALL SALES QUALIFY FOR DANIEL’S NO HIDDEN COST PROGRAM

The Paintbox no hidden costs program ensures that there are no surprises at closing.

We spell out the additional costs in the Agreement to Purchase and we cap those closing costs at $3,000.00*.  We make it simple and we save you money on closing.

The following extras included in the capped program:

Utility Connection Fees:

Standard   $1,500.00                                                                       Paintbox Included

Transaction Levy Fee:

Standard   $65.00 Status                                                                 Paintbox Included

Certificate:

Standard   $100.00                                                                          Paintbox Included

Development Charges:

Standard    $3,500.00 Electronic                                                     Paintbox Included

Registration Fee:

Standard    $150.00                                                                        Paintbox Included

Deposit Administration Fee:

Standard    $200.00                                                                        Paintbox Included

     Total: $5,515.00                                                                       Paintbox $3,000.00

                                              SAVINGS: $2,515.00

*Does not include the Tarion Enrolment Fee, initial reserve fund contribution, and realty taxes.

Overview

The Paintbox Condominiums is the newest project by The Daniels Corporation in Regent Park, Downtown Toronto East.  The project will be a 26-storey building with 283 suites, ranging from 392 square feet to 925 square feet.  Pricing will start in the low $200,000s.  There will be a ground floor cafe, fitness centre, great party room and a spectacular outdoor terrace overlooking the 6 acre park across the street. Paintbox will be connected to the new Arts and Cultural Centre, the newest addition to Toronto’s community arts scene.  On the east side of Paintbox will be a new Linear Park with interlock stones, tree lines and the feel of a boulevard.


Regent Park Revitalization

The historical downtown Toronto neighbourhood of Regent Park (spanning from the east side of Parliament Street to River Street and bounded by Gerrard Street East and Queen Street East) is undergoing a remarkable transition.  Toronto Community Housing is replacing the long-isolated social housing neighbourhood with an innovative mixed-income, mixed-use community.  The Regent Park revitalization will take 10-15 years, over 6 distinct phases.  In April 2010, Toronto Community Housing announced plans for the second phase of the project, including the selection of The Daniels Corporation as its developer and construction partner.  The first two phases of Regent Park Revitalization will cover 30 acres of land.


Phase One Highlights:

  • More than 400 households were relocated to allow for demolition and 187 families have moved into a new home.
  • Moving costs are paid by Toronto Community Housing.
  • Relocating tenants began in 2005.  Construction began in 2006.
  • Phase One includes retail, commercial and community spaces.
  • There are 3 new rental buildings, 47 new town homes and 87 new social housing units, that’s 405 units in total.
  • Tenants started moving into the first rental building in May 2009.
  • There are 2 new condominiums in Phase One at One Cole and One Park West, plus 51 market town homes.
  • One Cole is complete and sold-out.  One Park West is nearly 100 percent sold and will be fully occupied by summer 2011.
  • New national retailers include Tim Hortons, the Royal Bank of Canada and FreshCo by Sobeys.
  • The new Regent Park Children and Youth Hub located at 40 Regent Street opened its doors to Parents for Better Beginnings, Regent Park Focus and a daycare centre.

Phase Two Highlights:

  • Phase Two will include 400 rental units in a combination of styles.
  • Phase Two will feature the Paintbox condominiums with 283 units.
  • The 60,000 square foot Regent Park Arts and Cultural Centre is poised to be the next major cultural destination in the City of Toronto.  Construction is well underway on this phenomenal centre from which the Paintbox condominiums will rise.
  • Phase two will also focus on new community facilities, including an aquatic centre, a new community centre, a new park and new retailers along Dundas Street East.

Why is Paintbox a Good Choice for End Users?

  • Paintbox is already under construction, all you need is a 5% down payment!  Only $3,500 on signing the Agreement of Purchase and Sale, and $1,000 per month until your move-in date or until 5% of the purchase price has been paid.
  • If you do not own a home and are currently renting, you may qualify for Daniel’s FIRST HOME BOOST program, the most powerful first-time buyer program ever created.  This innovative down payment program provides an INTEREST-FREE and PAYMENT-FREE loan for an additional 10% of the purchase price, turning your 5% deposit into a 15% down payment!  See more details about this amazing program here.
  • Move-in within 1 year!  Occupancy is expected to be summer 2012.
  • Live in a brand new condo (and enjoy all the brand new community facilities in the neighbourhood) by the reputable builder Daniels in Downtown Toronto starting at the low $200,000s. 

Why is Paintbox a Good Choice for Investors?
  • Only 5% down before occupancy!
  • The Regent Park Revitalization project is going to bring lots of employment and infrastructure into the neighbourhood and with a long term, master planned community project, it is natural to expect the developer to raise the price with each new phase development.
  • People who bought at the early days of One Cole (Phase 1) have already seen as much as 20% appreciation!  A 1+Den unit of $253,000 (with parking) in May 2009 was sold for $305,000 in September 2010. A 2 bedroom unit of $348,000 (with parking) in May 2009 was sold for $420,000 in November 2010.
  • Start collecting rental income within 2 years of purchase (occupancy is expected to be 2013), as an example, a 1+Den unit at One Park West (Phase 1) is renting at $1595 per month.  With the downtown location (and only 1 block away from the Ryerson University), a rental unit will only last on the market for a few days; currently, there is only 1 unit available for rent in One Cole and One Park West condominiums.  

Floor plans and pricing are now available online (member only)!  

If you’re not our member yet, please registration now.

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